In retrospect, our last edition of the Trader's Corner probably couldn't have come at a more inopportune time....it was published on February 28th. If the date rings a bell, it was the day after the single-biggest-day plunge in years. At the time however, it could have been as much of a buying opportunity as it was a reason to sell. So, we forged ahead.
And all things considered, the big dip didn't really shake us up too much. Three of the four trades suggested prior to that fateful Tuesday are still intact, with one of them apparently thriving on the panic.
Incredimail (NASDAQ: MAIL) and Level Three (NASDAQ: LVLT), both purchased in the latter part of last year, are still on our plate. Good thing too, especially for anybody who took the plunge on MAIL.
Though we saw it fall back early in the year, it's been doing nothing but running higher lately. In fact, the buyers taking the stock from January's low of $6.35 to the current price above $8.00 didn't even flinch in late February or early March. You gotta' love a stock that can blow off market weakness. As of right now, we're up more than 31% in the MAIL suggestion.
LVLT hasn't quite kept up with the blistering pace of Incredimail, but has managed to at least hold onto its progress. We're ahead by more than 11% since our November entry at $5.46.
And what about our two most recent trades from late February? Both were caught up in the melee; one survived, and one didn't.
Sprint-Nextel (NYSE: S) fell relatively sharply with the rest of the market, but finally managed to rebound yesterday when support was made at the combined 200 and 50 day moving average lines. We're not entirely surprised to see investors buying on the dip here - it's a good story.
Basin Water (NASDAQ: BWTR) was forced out at our stop of $6.86 in early March. However, like Sprint, we like the story, and plan on keeping BWTR on our watchlist. As can often be the case, right stock - wrong time. We'll gladly wait for another good setup on this one. Besides, the entire water industry - from utilities to purification to infrastructure - may end up being the dark horses of the decade. Remember, some of the best opportunities are in the most boring, obscure places.
For today, we think we've found another dynamic duo....a couple of ideas to help you overcome what may end up being a sleepy spring time.
Take a look at the nearby chart of Cogent Inc. (NASDAQ: COGT). Your initial reaction is likely to be the same as ours - Cogent looks like it's starting what could be a very big recovery. This stock topped a little above $31.00 in August of 2005, and within a few months was on its way to under $11.00. But, something has changed in the last few days. For the first time since just after the 2005 peak, COGT is back above its 200 day moving average line...the grand-daddy of long-term indicators. Better yet, we like the way volume has ramped up along with the recovery move; it suggests the move higher isn't an accident. Oh, did you happen to notice Cogent basically laughed in the face of the market-wide pullback made in early March?
Our responsible side is telling us not to get greedy here, but our greedy side can't help but point out how there's not really any major resistance until $27.00, where we double-topped in early 2006 right before the worst of the selling began. Wearing our 'trader' hat has us somewhere in the middle of the argument. But, we'd rather take a shot and miss, than miss out because we didn't take a shot.
Let's establish a target of 27.00, keeping in mind this one merits some significant baby-sitting right out of the gate. Let's start with a stop of $12.60, but we may be ratcheting the stop up quite frequently between here and there.
Our other idea is red-hot China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL). Aside from latching on to the overall growth in most of the Pacific Rim, China Mobile is creating its own secular growth. In fiscal 2006, revenues were up 21%, earnings were up 23%, and subscriber numbers were up 22%. Analysts expect the same kind of growth rates going forward.
Incredibly though, there's still major room for more expansion. How so? The current subscriber base totals up to a whopping 461 million....2/3 of China's mobile phone market. Compare that to China's population of 1.3 billion, and what we see is a lot of untapped potential. With the way they're growing, to expect China Mobile to soon 'own' the market isn't entirely a figure of speech.
We suggest a target of $56.20, which is in line with recent rallies made by CHL following a healthy pullback.....like the one we saw in early March. And, somewhat needless to say though, we think the recent dip is an opportune entry window. As far as a stop is concerned, $42.60 looks to be about right (to us) for the time being.
Just for the record, CHL shares gained 79.7% last year, and 40.0% in 2005. So, the market isn't uncomfortable with this one flying high for long-term stretches.
That's all for now, but stay tuned - you never know what might pop up in the meantime.