A few weeks ago, in the 'Technology Trends' column, I took a swing at some of the key changes I think I see coming in 2007 and beyond. Some may have meant investment opportunities, while others were just observations. However, they were all ultimately the product of my imagination....which is at least partially tech-savvy.
But what do the pros think is brewing up for 2007? Certainly there's some overlap with my ideas, but their level of technology acumen far exceeds mine. So, when they speak on the subject, I listen.
To give credit where credit is due, today's technology trend was originally inspired by a website called CIO Insight. The particular article I stumbled across (and I mean that literally....I was looking for something else with my Google search) was titled 'The 30 Most Important IT Trends for 2007'. Initially I thought 'Great - I'm all set on technology columns for the rest of the year!' However, a closer look at the list quickly told me either (1) some of these trends didn't apply to me as an investor, or (2) some of these trends were over my head.
But, there was one trend the author pointed out I felt could have a major impact on all of us as opportunity seekers.......IT Security threats are not going away.
The Security Flaw is Shifting
Anybody able to get to this website is - by default - Internet-aware enough to recall several major threats of a worm, virus, or trojan destined to shut down the world as we know it. Granted, many of the worries have been overblown, though some of them did manage to create a few patches of havoc. In fact, statistically speaking, the computer you're using right now is, was, or will eventually be infected with some sore of malicious software. And, the threat gets worse and worse each day.
That being said, it seems like worms, trojans, and viruses - long-standing favorites of hackers everywhere - are losing their luster as these crooks migrate to newer, and perhaps better, ways of getting information they're not supposed to have.
The bigger growing threat is packet-sniffing....or intercepting data by posing as legitimate Internet connection source. Packet-sniffing is easy to do - just offer up a wireless network (Wi-Fi) like the kind you might find in an airport. Anybody who accesses the web through the network may be unknowingly telling someone else every key password they use, and every key stroke they make. Needless to say, this is why you should always be leery of using an unsecured, wireless network....you never know who's watching - it may not be who you think it is.
The Problem's Probably Going to Get Worse
Moreover, I think this threat has become much more of a worry in the last few months, as smart phones and PDA's have become more powerful. Most, if not all, high-end (and many low-end) personal digital assistants now allow Wi-Fi web access. However, these relatively new operating systems may or may not have security measures strong enough to prevent unauthorized retrieval of the data and documents you have stored on your PDA's memory card or drive. Having the phone/device turned on could be a big vulnerability, at least from my neophyte view.
And just how big is the threat? Big enough that I'm not the first person to be thinking about it. Though you probably haven't heard much about it in the 'outside world', a lack of security for PDAs and smart phones does indeed have some IT managers worried.
Think about this.....some research done in 2006 found that roughly half of corporate executives are "mobile", and about 80 percent of them plan to ramp up their use of mobile electronics. A full 25% of the same respondents acknowledged they had critical data on a PDA or smart phone, yet 40% of the group didn't have any type of security for the device. Not good. And, with the price of these gizmos dropping every day, and as they become more prolific, the concern grows and grows.
In any case, who's on the cutting edge of security threats? The knee-jerk answer might be Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC)...maker of the popular Norton-brand software. But, being a big name in the industry doesn't mean much anymore (other than you're big). Are there any rising stars with a more novel and effective way of really maintaining security other than a good firewall? Is there anybody out there able to protect packets and PDAs?
The answer is yes, they're out there - though few and far between. Many of the major security players are taking a stab at the niche as well. However, I suspect the need will be more than a niche as time passes.
Anyway, just something to think about. If you can find a company developing PDA security software that can not only de-throne some of the bigger-muscled players, but also be deployed profitably, then maybe you've got something worth holding onto for a while.
The First Victim of Security Issues?
On something a side note, the same list of IT trends also mentioned how ongoing security concerns would finally push consumers and business away from Windows - Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) bread and butter. I understand the sentiment, but for me (and the only use for my PC is connecting to the Internet), I really can't do that...all my software is 'Windows only'. HOWEVER, corporate needs for servers, mainframes, and other custom-built applications are becoming less and less reliant on Windows, as other operating systems continue to penetrate the market.
I have to wonder if the Windows franchise has failed to keep up with the constantly-changing need. A few years ago it may have appeared as if it didn't matter - Microsoft owned the operating system market, and therefore controlled the hardware and software market. I think the cold reception to the newest Vista version of Windows may be a symptom of a bigger problem though. Are ordinary consumers also at the end of their rope with all-things-Microsoft? The stock's tepid performance since 2002 may suggest they are.
Again, I'd like to thank the CIO Insight website for providing most of the inspiration and data for this column.