Are you a chicken trader? You’ve got mail.
Although the broader markets have
continued to grind higher of late, contrary to many, I’m not so sure the
better trading opportunities exist within our large cap brethren over the
near term. Therefore, I’ve identified what I believe to be a couple of
excellent trading opportunities in the small cap arena, which has been
largely ignored of late. Both of these swing plays technically appear quite
compelling and ripe for potentially profitable trades to the long side.
And, I challenge anyone to find a more contrasting duo than the two I’m
about to share here.
Ready? Chickens and email. Yes, you
read it correctly. Think I’m crazy? You wouldn’t be the first. However,
it should satisfy the thirst for diversity so often suggested by Wall Street’s
pundits.
Sanderson Farms, (NASDAQ:
SAFM), has made a stealth like move over the last few months, one
I’ve played to profits on a few different occasions (before my article
here existed), and I think it may be in for another decent move to the
upside. After hitting bottom back in August of this year, the chicken producer
rocketed up the charts topping out at just over $35 bucks in mid September.
The stock has since pulled back to a couple of critical Fibonacci retracement
levels, the 3/8 of the complete leg up that started in August, and 5/8
of the big move that started on August 29th. The reason you see blur with
the numbers in the chart displayed here is actually a good thing in my
opinion. I call it a “confluence area”. In other words, the 3/8 and 5/8
retracements levels I’ve mentioned coincide perfectly with each other at
roughly the same price level ($30 and change). Hence, an excellent risk/reward
entry point at current levels.
I’m in for 1000 shares with an average
cost basis around $30 and change w/ a suggested stop at $29 bucks just
in case the market wants to clean up all the stops sitting at $30. A target?
$38, which would be the 5/8 retracement from its complete bird flu scare
sell off that started back in June of last year.
Incredimail,
(NASDAQ: MAIL),
much like its chicken partner has also been moving nicely up the charts
in recent months, however, MAIL paints a bit of a different picture than
the chickens. A much simpler explanation of my MAIL trade goes like this…every
time MAIL has pulled back to the 3x3 since July, it has represented an
excellent trading opportunity if one was savvy enough to sell into the
runaway rallies. Well, here we are again. A break of the 3x3 three days
ago presents what I believe to be an excellent entry point. What makes
this trade even more exciting for me is the volume has been picking up
of late, as well as the daily bars have getting a bit more volatile. Is
this a sign of a major breakout in the near future? We’ll see. I like the
chances. However, I will give this a bit more breathing room (than the
chickens) to get pushed around since liquidity is a bit of an issue, so
I’ll set the stop loss at $5.35. I’m in for $2500 shares with an average
cost basis of $6 and change. Should MAIL decide to take off like I think
it’s capable of, I think it’s all-time high of just under $9 bucks is not
out of the question. I’ll peg my short-term target there.
Although this column is dedicated
to trading opportunities, I think one may want to have a long look at possibly
adding SAFM or MAIL to their longer-term investment portfolio (after doing
the important and tedious exercise of due diligence of course) because
they are both companies I think are major players in their respective industries.
Something I like to see in smaller cap stocks, big industry players with
good room for market cap growth left.
Sanderson Farms is one of the largest
producers and distributors of chicken to our local grocers throughout the
country. Tyson of course being the other. If you think chicken is going
away, think again. It always has and still remain a staple of our diet.
As a matter of fact, just listen to all of the diteticians out there raving
about the health advantages of chicken over beef.
Bird flu or no bird flu. Bird flu
just gives the savvy long-term investor an opportunity to pick up some
chicken farms at a discount to the market. I digress.
IncrediMail, Ltd. engages in the
design, development, and marketing of an integrated suite of email software
products to the consumer and home user markets. Management appears to be
managing their business nicely. The company has been turning a profit (what
a novelty), they have excellent cash on the books and virtually no debt.
Now consider this, in the age of major media conglomerates paying an exuberant
amount of money for databases (Wall Street calls it desired demographic
advertising targets), what do you think Incredimail really has that everyone
may want? Good guess. I concur. With potentially millions of users, and
a current market cap of roughly $63 million, I like to think there exists
some major upside in this stock if they are a valid takeout candidate for
one of the bigger players.
Happy Trading…
Trader’s Corner Editor