Market Summary
| Nasdaq |
2208.89 |
-24.86 |
(-1.11%) |
| Russell 2K |
629.29 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
| S&P 500 |
1091.84 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
| S&P 100 |
493.68 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
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Newsletter Editions
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December 30, 2009 : Op-Ed: Consumer Confidence Is "Still Weak"? A Media Reality Check
It's amazing how presumptuous the media can be sometimes. Oh, that's not to say they should never fill in the blanks or paint a bigger picture when it's needed - investors and resources such as this website have to do the same sometimes. On occasion though, the assumptions are not only off-base, they're...
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December 23, 2009 : What's a 'Normal Valuation' For a Financial Stock? Here's the Answer
If there's one thing 2009 forced all investors to reconsider, it's the definition of 'cheap'. What one man has considered 'cheap' this year, another man has just considered 'undervalued'. Worse, the fine line between cheap and undervalued - particularly for financial stocks - has been sliding back and...
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December 17, 2009 : The Dogs of the Dow Strategy Fails ....Miserably, & Consistently
With the new year approaching fast, we know most of you are thinking about changes you'd like to make to your portfolio now so you can hit the ground running when 2010 gets here. Ideally, those changes will mean you beat the market in the coming year. While we strive to help you do just that on an ongoing...
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December 10, 2009 : Delayed Reaction: H1N1 Hype Ends, H1N1 Vaccine Sales Start
With the market unable to get any real traction over the last month, the number of compelling trading ideas is shrinking. In early November we had no trouble finding six stocks we thought were solid ideas. This week, finding two worthy names was a challenge. Nevertheless, quality is more important than...
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December 02, 2009 : Discretionary Spending's Stealthy Revival (& how to tap it)
Some of these stats you may be familiar with, and some you may not. Just to make sure we're all fully informed and on the same page though, let's run through all of them quickly. Regarding retail sales over the post-Thanksgiving weekend... In-store shopping over the weekend (not just the Friday after...
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November 24, 2009 : Megatrend: The Numbers Behind the SaaS Opportunity
Everyone wants to latch onto investments that reap the reward of so-called megatrends, like the dot-com rally of the late 90's, or the clean-energy craze we've seen for the better part of this decade. The challenge is finding one that actually pays off - most of the fads deemed to be megatrends end up...
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November 19, 2009 : China's Switch From Exports to Consumerism: Don't Hold Your Breath
On September 18th, the Micro Cap Press published an article that surprisingly didn't stir up a strong debate. The premise of the article was simply that the investment gambles on China's personal consumers (as opposed to industries and institutions) were far too optimistic - China's consumers are in...
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November 12, 2009 : Nanotechnology Falls Short of the Hype
Several weeks ago we posted the beginning of what we hoped would be a series of commentaries on nanotechnology investments. Though not exactly 'new' (the term proliferated around 2003), President Obama's stimulus package included funding for further nanotechnology R&D that could have led to a giant...
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November 04, 2009 : Six Stocks Worth a Look
As usual, we're simply going to highlight what we think are some of the better opportunities we see popping up right now. Some rationales are chart-based, some are fundamental-based (and some are both). None of them are official trades just yet, but any of them could be soon. Maui Land & Pineapple...
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October 29, 2009 : The Market Cycle Model Works, Next Year's Best Sectors
So what's next for stocks? First and foremost we suspect the financial sector will cool off. That's not to say all financial stocks will do poorly, but it's no longer a case where the rising tide is lifting all boats. That's in line with the sequential model above, which suggests the group is one you...
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October 26, 2009 : Recession Report Card: Is It Really Over?
We've always interpreted economic data as specifically and as carefully as possible, striving to not let opinions or assumptions unduly influence us. The core of that economic-based forecasting strategy was discussed way back in September of 2007 (Economic Reality 101). Since then - though the basics...
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October 15, 2009 : Retail Sales Forecast = Meaningless, Upcoming IPOs
Having had some time to digest this year's holiday shopping projection from the National Retail Federation (and some time to dig up their history), we've come to a conclusion.... you really shouldn't worry about their forecast this year, or any year for that matter. The National Retail Federation - or...
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October 09, 2009 : Don't Sweat Unemployment, Video Gaming on the Mend
There's a long-standing assumption that's being tested in 2009.... the assumption that video game sales were recession proof. This year may well mark the first year since the data's been tracked that PC and console game revenue will be lower than the prior year's. Yes, even in 2001 and 2002, kids (and...
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October 05, 2009 : Sector & Industry Outlook for Q4
Any new hot spots we should be aware of now that the fourth quarter is here? Actually, there are a handful of interesting sector and industry charts suggesting bullish days may be ahead. Just to be clear, this isn't a multi-year outlook. On the flipside, this isn't a slew of 'swing' trade ideas either...
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September 30, 2009 : A Game-Changer for SPKL, A Key Detail for CGYV
If you were a patient owner of Spicy Pickle (SPKL), then you found a lot of happiness last week. If you were a patient owner of China Energy Recovery (CGYV), then you're patience is wearing thin. Let's take a better look at both. Last Wednesday, SPKL surged from $0.155 to $0.19, and ended up closing...
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September 24, 2009 : Bear Attack! How Low Can Stocks Go?
Before anyone gets a chance to underestimate or overestimate just how bad things could get for stocks now that the bears are back in action, let's just take a breath and cue up some perspective. Yes, stocks lost about 1% today, and are lower by about 1.8% for the week so far. That's not a lot, especially...
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September 18, 2009 : Op-Ed: A Tale of Two Chinas... Consumers Vs. Industry
There's no doubt China's been an investment focal point since late last year. The country's government was the first to embrace a stimulus plan, and almost all of that money was put into action in the first half of the year. And, it seems to have worked. China's GDP grew at a pace of 7.9% in Q2 rather...
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September 11, 2009 : What's Not Wrong With the Market? Upcoming IPOs
Since mid-March of this year - after stocks began to rally - the debate has raged over whether or not the rebound is justified or not. The bearish prognosticators continue to point out new and more dire reasons stocks are in a world of trouble, while the bulls simply continue to enjoy their gains. Though...
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September 04, 2009 : Market Update: Which is Crazier - Current, or Projected, Valuations?
Don't look now, but the market's overvalued. That's probably not earth-shattering to anyone - what else would an investor expect here in the shadow of the worst recession in decades? On the other hand, one would expect those investors to learn some important lessons about valuations. Perhaps it's simply...
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August 31, 2009 : Winners, Losers, and Why - Market News That Matters
Just for comparative purposes, the Russell 3000 was up 0.25% last week, and the S&P 1500 was up 0.27%. In other words, it was a pretty benign week.... for most stocks. A few groups, however, went hog wild in good and bad ways. A quick run-down before we dig in deeper: Photographic products exploded...
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August 22, 2009 : Something the Market's Never Done Before, Time to Worry?
While we certainly applaud the 13% gain the market's already made this year (and the 50% gain since March's low), the 4.7% gain over the last four days of last week has taken the situation from 'impressive' to 'dangerous' ....dangerously overbought, that is. Yet, the last few days are not unlike the...
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August 10, 2009 : A True Picture of Unemployment, & Two Worthy IPOs
Today's edition continues to explore the economy's pending rebound - we're really going to dive into last week's employment data. After that, we're going to review a couple of interesting IPOs that should start trading sometime in the next few days. A Glimmer of Hope? Unemployment in July sank to a surprising...
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July 30, 2009 : Consumer Confidence Op-Ed: The Sky Isn't Falling
By now you've certainly had time to digest this month's consumer confidence reading, and the news/commentary surrounding it. With all "the sky is falling" opinions out of the way in the wake of July's lower confidence levels, we can offer you a little more grounded perspective. Yes, it's true that the...
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July 24, 2009 : Market Report: Small Cap Value Hot, Large Cap Growth Cold
Last week we took a pretty deep look at the fundamental estimates for small cap stocks. Though that's the kind of information that should guide your bias when it comes time to pick stocks, it's certainly not the only consideration. Today we're going to take a similar look at market caps and styles and...
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July 17, 2009 : Small Cap Fundamental Outlook, By Sector: The Good, Bad, and Ugly
We've spent the better part of the last few months talking about the economy... what was wrong with it, how it could be fixed, and how to know when it was. And, we're getting there. Now that there's a light at the end of that tunnel (i.e. it's actually possible to produce earnings), we should also start...
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July 06, 2009 : Economic Reality Check - What Green Shoots?
Not that this is all the data that matters, but our five economic barometers today examine the economy's heaviest hitters ....inflation, confidence, employment, productivity, and capacity utilization. The other information the media usually covers may be interesting, but not necessarily telling. (We'll...
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June 27, 2009 : Market Outlook: Still on the Fence, How Unfrozen is the Credit Market?
Another wild week on Wall Street ended up being a non-event in the grand scheme of things. After reaching a low of 1753.78 and bouncing back to a high of 1840.98, the NASDAQ Composite closed at 1838.22 on Friday... a mere 0.5% higher than the prior week's close. The other indices performed about the...
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June 19, 2009 : Sector Outlook: New Trend Confirmed
It was exactly one week ago today we made a bullish call on healthcare, and pinpointed a handful of specific healthcare industries we felt were likely to lead that rally. Of course, the opinion was focused on the small caps within those respective healthcare industries. We just hope you were listening...
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June 12, 2009 : Sector Outlook: Strength in Surprising Places
You know what's been coming on strong lately from the small cap world? It's not necessarily energy or basic materials (though those certainly haven't been disappointments). No, one of the more obscure small cap opportunities floating around right now is the uptrend from certain segments of the healthcare...
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June 03, 2009 : Nanotechnology - The Stimulus Plan's Stealth Beneficiary
It can pay to read the fine print, even though your senators and congressmen didn't really do the same when approving the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Even today - weeks after the bill became a law - we're finding some compelling tidbits that may translate into opportunities for small and...
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May 29, 2009 : The Truth About "Selling in May and Going Away"
"Sell in May and go away." It's a clever, catchy cliché, isn't it? It rhymes, AND it has a founded historical basis, sort of ... maybe ..... or maybe not really. The Micro Cap Press analytical staff haven't been indecisive about our bearish expectations for stocks this summer. We're not looking...
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May 27, 2009 : What Consumer Confidence Didn't Say
An unexpected rise in the Conference Board's consumer confidence figure pushed stocks much higher yesterday, but did the move make sense? More importantly, can the market possibly live up to these fast-growing expectations, or did investors read too much into the confidence level? Those questions are...
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May 22, 2009 : Market Update: From Drizzle to Rain - Is a Storm Coming?
Market Update: From Drizzle to Rain - Is a Storm Coming? Updated Ideas... a Lot Can Happen in a Week More Penny Stocks and Micro Caps 'Of Interest' From Drizzle to Rain - Is a Storm Coming? It took a few more days than we figured it would back in the May 13th edition, but the bear finally took a big...
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May 13, 2009 : The Bulls' First Real Challenge - The Breakdown Begins
We've got a handful of things to look at today, so no big fanfare - just a quick overview. First up is a look at the broad market. Today's dip (so far) is the first serious bump in the road the bulls have seen since March's low. This is the point when we'll really find out if the last eight weeks were...
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May 08, 2009 : Sector Rotation: Healthcare Heating Up, Materials Cooling Off
Looking for the next big wave to trade? Financials and basic materials have been the big winners since the March 9th low, gaining 81% and 54%, respectively. Those are so last month though.... hopefully you aren't trying to relive the past by jumping on those fading trends. We've got some data for you...
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May 05, 2009 : China Energy's Chart on the Brink
It was only a week ago we reviewed China Energy Recovery Incorporated's (CGYV) $32.7 million backlog for the next twelve months. Today, we're continuing to see that growth in the top line by seeing growth in the scope and size of their projects - the latest one's worth $4.8 million. We'll take a look...
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April 28, 2009 : China Energy Puts It In Writing, Consumer Confidence Realities
It's hard to believe a company that did $23.2 million in business during calendar 2008 is now set to do about $32.7 million (so far) worth of business over the next twelve months. Well, actually it's not that hard to believe, considering it's China Energy Recovery Inc. We'll dive into the numbers and...
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April 21, 2009 : Bearish Pundits May Be Right, But Reason Is Wrong
Over the prior six weeks we've heard lots of arguments about whether or not we're at the beginning of a new bull market. Today's edition is going to stir that pot again... but scientifically, so we can come to a fair and unbiased conclusion. In short, all the bearish prognosticators may be right - perhaps...
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April 13, 2009 : Monday's Big Movers Worth a Look
The last several days - and several weeks for that matter - have started to unlock some previously-frozen penny stocks and micro cap stocks. While we still anticipate challenges ahead (for equities of all sizes), we also feel wading into the water of penny stocks doesn't have to be a terrifying idea...
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March 27, 2009 : Which Sector Will Lead the Next Bull Market?
Every bull market has a leading sector, and it usually emerges early on.... early enough to be evident even to the untrained eye. Technology was the clear leader in the go-go market of the late 90's, while energy stocks were the big winners during the bullish wave between 2002 and 2007. So which sector...
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March 18, 2009 : What's Hot (and Not) With Small Caps?
As promised this past weekend, we're going to look at the market's key charts today as we continue to navigate what so far has only been considered a 'bear market rally'. It may only be that, but we're still 10% above those recent lows, and that goes a long way in healing the wounds (even if only temporarily)
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March 14, 2009 : Market Bottom? Maybe. Economic Bottom? Not Quite Yet.
After five straight weeks of losses, this week's huge gains inspired plenty of discussion of whether or not we've actually made 'the' big market bottom. We'd have to agree the arguments in favor of a bottom already being made are getting better and better every day. Are they good enough though? We've...
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March 08, 2009 : Megatrend: Wind Energy on Pace to Quadruple by 2020
Remember John Naisbitt's books 'Megatrends' from 1982, and then 'Megatrends 2000' from 1990? In it, the author talks about massive socioeconomic paradigm shifts we all need to understand, so we can profit or benefit from. Well, we've got a 'megatrend' idea of our own for you today....one that could also...
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February 22, 2009 : A Stock That's Actually Going Up? Yes, It's True
If you're not a regular reader of the blog, you may want to become one. Not only have we been providing some meaningful perspective on the market's recent implosion, we also uncovered an individual stock that's managed to overcome that weakness. In fact, this stock gained 8.3% on Friday alone; never...
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February 11, 2009 : When a Stimulus Doesn't Stimulate, SPKL's Introspection
We have to give credit where it's due. Spicy Pickle Franchising Inc. (OTC:SPKL) just gave us a glimpse of what's going on with the company, warts and all. As you might expect, it's not all sunshine and roses, but that's ok - nobody really expected greatness in this environment. What we got was a realistic...
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February 08, 2009 : Stocks May Be Undervalued, But Is That Enough?
January of 2009 may well have been the worst January in decades, with the S&P 500 falling 8.5%. But, the first week of February offset a big chunk of that loss. Last week, the S&P 500 gained 5.1%. Point being, we're not quite in the dire straits much of the media would have you believe. So where...
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January 24, 2009 : The Bulls Try to Take the Reigns, But For How Long?
It looks like investors want to be bulls here - it really does. In five of the last six sessions, the buyers stepped up to the plate in the middle of the day to avert what would have been sizeable losses. Unfortunately, those same buyers couldn't stave off Tuesday's slaughter, which is the only reason...
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January 14, 2009 : A Chart That Actually Tells the Company's Story
There's nothing more satisfying to an investor than a chart that actually reflects the value of the underlying company. And yes, it does happen sometimes... honestly. Case in point - China Energy Recovery (OTCBB: CGYV). While the last few months have negatively disrupted the stocks of some very strong...
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January 09, 2009 : Market at a Pivotal Point Today ...Literally
Believe it or not, today's a very pivotal day for stocks - and not just in the short run. The bears have had several chances since mid-November to knock the bulls off their perch, but haven't made good on any of them. Instead, the bulls have been resilient, allowing index charts to work their way into...
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January 03, 2009 : What To Expect From Stocks in 2009 (Hint: It's Not a Repeat of 2008)
Looks like 2009 got started on the right foot as far as stocks are concerned, with the major indices tacking more gains onto the ones we saw made on the last day of 2008. We'll offer up a forecast for the coming year in a moment. First though, we want to give you a quick review of 2008. Gladly Closing...
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Updated: 8:42 pm PDT (03:42 GMT), September 7, 2010
