Market Summary
| Nasdaq |
2905.66 |
+45.98 |
(+1.61%) |
| Russell 2K |
831.11 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
| S&P 500 |
1344.90 |
+19.36 |
(+1.46%) |
| S&P 100 |
606.89 |
+8.35 |
(+1.40%) |
| Quotes are delayed 20 minutes. |
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Newsletter Editions
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November 02, 2010 : Before Taking the Political Gridlock Plunge...
On tap for this mid-week edition of the Micro Cap Press newsletter.... Before Taking the Gridlock Plunge - Don't believe the numbers just because they're in print. Trading Ideas - Four small and micro cap ideas From the Blog - Recent highlights not featured in the newsletter Before Taking the Political...
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October 27, 2010 : Another Bearish Red Flag, But Still Pulling the Trigger on AEL
We've got a lot to get to today, so we'll do so without any fanfare. On tap for this mid-week edition of the Micro Cap Press newsletter.... From the Editor: Swapping Out Some Stocks - We're adding one to it, but subtracting two from the editor's 'sandbox' portfolio. Which one is being added? One of the...
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October 23, 2010 : Market Update: The Bulls Strike Back, + Four Potenial Picks
* The Bulls Strike Back, But the Future's Unchanged - Though the market managed to offset Tuesday's selloff and muster a gain for the week, the damage may already be done. And, considering the same damage has lead to bearish results before, the bulls may want to digest this reality. * From the Editor...
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October 09, 2010 : What Are Stocks Worth as of Today? (We Answer With a Number)
This crazy wheel we call the market never seems to stop spinning, does it? Either too hot or too cold at any given time (for real, or only perceived), wild moves have become the norm. There is an underlying root to the insanity though... valuation. Yes, when you take a few steps back and look at the...
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September 09, 2010 : Market Update: Bulls Not At the End of the Line Yet
Have the bulls already worn out their welcome, and invited the pullback so many are assuming is already on the way? The chatter says yes, but the data says no. The reality of the rally's longevity is below. After that, a handful of sector and industry calls. 'Nuff said. First though, we want to direct...
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August 28, 2010 : The Bullish Argument Isn't Half Bad
Well, while it's too soon bet the farm on it, Friday's market action looks suspiciously like what we suggested could unfold over the past few weeks.... so far anyway. Don't dismiss Friday's bullish action as luck. If it was luck, there were an awful lot of coincidences that just happen to lend themselves...
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August 19, 2010 : Reality Check: What's Really Wrong With Homebuilder Stocks?
After yet-another disappointing building permits and housing starts update on Tuesday of this week, we were inundated with yet-another salvo of news commentaries stating the obvious.... with headlines such as "Home Builders Continue to Struggle...", and "Housing Starts Still Weak". Fair enough. The most...
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August 14, 2010 : Inflation Versus Deflation: How to Play Either (Part 2)
Again we'll stress we've seen neither inflation nor deflation yet, despite table-pounding prognostications for both. Until it becomes clear one or the other is inevitable, the wisest action to take may be none.... even if the talking heads on TV sound so sure of themselves. The ideas presented above...
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August 12, 2010 : Inflation Versus Deflation: Reality Check (Part 1)
Not since Rocky Balboa took on Clubber Lang have we seen such a fierce fight take shape.... except maybe the Bush/Gore debacle. In one corner we have the deflation pundits, freshly up from the amateur ranks, and hungry to build on the evidence that Ben Bernanke served up on Tuesday. The deflation idea...
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August 07, 2010 : How Close is the Market to Real Bullishness? Plus, a Surprising New
What looked like was going to be a disappointing - perhaps downright bearish - end to the week early on Friday ended up being something quite different by the time the closing bell rang. And while every tick is important, that late-in-the-day surge is incredibly telling about the state of investors...
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July 31, 2010 : Market Update, Unemployment Claims Reality Check, + One Pick
The bulls fought hard to get back in the black on Friday, and in so doing, almost ended the week with a gain. Whether the week was a winner or a loser isn't really even the important part though - it's the intra-week transition that we're interested in..... Friday's in particular. Why's that? Because...
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July 24, 2010 : Market Update. Plus, Why the Market Does What it Does
The S&P 500 managed to gain 4.5% last week, overcoming a big Wednesday pullback, and more than offsetting the previous week's 1.2% loss. So what happened in the meantime to turn investors back on again? Economy? No, the new unemployment claims figure is back in the 'too high' area, and real estate...
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July 19, 2010 : Market Outlook - The Bearish Case Vs. the Bullish Case
Is the glass half full, or half empty? Maybe both. It's not going to stay half-and-half for long though. Here are the arguments both sides are making. They're important to define, as changes to them (or lack thereof) will confirm or abate the looming re-entry in to a full-blown bear market. The bears...
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July 12, 2010 : What You Need to Know About the Earnings Season Environment
Incredibly, as strong as last week was on the depth (volume) and breadth (advancers/decliners) front, the market's tide hasn't technically changed to a bullish trend; the only thing last week did was undo the bearish breadth and depth from the prior week. In other words, last week's surge was just part...
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July 01, 2010 : Op-Ed: Has Fear Blinded Us To Reason? (Answer: Yes)
If the section title (Making a Mountain Out of a Molehill) rings a bell, it's because we used the same title back on April 8th. Of course, we used it for the exact opposite reason. That full title at the time was 'Making a Bullish Mountain Out of a Molehill', and the message at the time was simple...
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June 26, 2010 : Market Update: Friday's Action More Than a Financial Sector Show
....without even realizing it. It's tough to make money in the market, but it sure is easy to lose it, isn't it? Ironically, the things that really make or break investors are the things that are rarely discussed. With that in mind, here are three of those realities that have resurfaced thanks to the...
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June 21, 2010 : The Rest of the Housing Starts, Building Permits Story
We've mentioned before that two of the most accurate and helpful economic indicators are capacity utilization and industrial productivity.... both published in tandem by the Federal Reserve. And by 'helpful', we specifically mean 'helpful to investors', in that there's a stunning degree of correlation...
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June 09, 2010 : Stop the Market, I Want to Get Off - Perspective on Stocks
Is that how you feel right now? You want to get off this crazy ride? If you're like most investors, probably so. Here's some perspective that will help you navigate through what is hopefully the last part of a volatile period (for better or worse). First and foremost, know that a meltdown isn't a forgone...
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June 02, 2010 : Five Micro Caps to Pump Up Sagging Portfolios (We Name Names)
These investment ideas are presented in no particular order. All of them, however, are just that.... investment ideas (as opposed to trading ideas). Per our mantra, technical potential as well as fundamental factors played a role in their selection. Image Sensing Systems Inc. (ISNS) We mentioned in our...
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May 27, 2010 : Q1's Mismatched Earnings Results: Opportunity in Disparity
What's the ultimate driver of stock values? Most would say that earnings results (and growth) are the most important numbers to investors - and we wouldn't disagree. A lot of factors can have an impact though.... and the size of their impact can vary with the mood of the market. For that reason, let's...
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May 21, 2010 : Market Outlook: They Zigged, Time to Zag
OK, a brief revisit of the technique is in order, just to make sure we have a perfect understanding of what we were trying to do with breadth and depth before we turn it completely around. When we say 'breadth', we're referring to the number if advancing stocks for any given exchange (usually the NYSE...
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May 18, 2010 : Market Update: The Pendulum's Almost to the Other Side Now
Though it's not over yet, the bulk of the market's companies have reported their earnings results for the first quarter of 2010. Of the 3031 major names that posted Q1 numbers since April 12th (the unofficial kick-off to earnings season this year), 58.8% have beat earnings estimates, while 32.4% have...
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May 13, 2010 : Sector, Industry Outlook - The Market's Next Big Things
As said above, there's a tricky difference between 'strong' and 'near the end of the rally'.... and most small caps within most sectors do indeed look like their better days are behind them. So, we've deliberately screened each and every sector from a comparative, stand-alone, fundamental, and momentum...
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May 06, 2010 : How Much 'Sell in May' Action Should We Expect?
We delivered a similar message about this time last year, but considering it's relevant again (and always will be), we're going to update the actual numbers behind the whole 'sell in May and go away' thing again. Let's just say the advice is misleading at best. The principle of selling in May and just...
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May 01, 2010 : More Clues About the Outcome of the Bull/Bear Stalemate
In Friday's blog entry we didn't make any bones about the bearishness that had materialized over the last three weeks - if we had to bet, we'd bet stocks were going to move lower now that its vulnerabilities were being exposed. Of course, we don't have to bet; we can choose to remain on the sidelines...
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April 28, 2010 : Did Healthcare Just Serve Up a Pullback 'Tell'?
To their credit, hospitals did better in Q1 of 2010 than they did in Q1 of 2009 in terms of revenue as well as income. So, the stocks' advances were not completely without fundamental merit. For instance, Health Management Associates Inc. (NYSE:HMA) shares jumped 5% after the company topped first quarter...
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April 21, 2010 : Four Micro Caps to Plant In Your 2010 Investment Garden
We've been so focused on the economy and the broad market of late, we haven't had as much opportunity as we'd normally like to suggest a few micro cap stock picks that you - and most of the market - may have missed. We'll make up for lost time today by presenting four trading ideas worth considering...
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April 17, 2010 : Op-Ed: Goldman Scandal More Catalytic Than Criminal
While it's no secret that a Goldman Sachs executive was named as part of a trading scandal on Friday, surprisingly few news sources have actually explained exactly what the SEC allegations are. We can sum it up in a few sentences for you; our op-ed thoughts will be a tad more verbose. In simplest terms...
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April 08, 2010 : Market Valuation: Making a Bullish Mountain Out of a Molehill
As of our February 25th look (and as of February 25th prices), the S&P 500's trailing twelve-month P/E was a moderate 19.47; the GAAP P/E ratio was an equally moderate 21.45. For comparison, the long-term averages for those numbers are 19.40 and 26.18, respectively. So, at those prices, stocks appeared...
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April 02, 2010 : A Bearish Case, & Making Lemonade Out of Real Estate's Lemons
The details of the data are packed into the blog entry linked above, so we're not going to rehash them here. Let's just say the housing and real estate market's woes are far from over... despite what some may want to believe. Conversely, just because the real estate market isn't recovering doesn't mean...
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March 27, 2010 : Healthcare Reform's Winners Nobody's Talking About
A quick run-down of the major pressures, by industry, is in order. Insurers: More customers may mean more revenue, but not necessarily more profit. When an additional 32 million paying customer are enrolled in the soon-to-be-required coverage, insurance companies will see a better top line. But, with...
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March 24, 2010 : A 'So What?' For Boeing, Where the Real Action Is
Not that their large-cap counterparts didn't do it, but the small and micro cap defense stocks have started to fly high again this week.... a move that we hinted at (and the reason we initiated the Small/Micro Cap Defense Index) back on February 21st. On the other hand, the micro cap defense names do...
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March 18, 2010 : The Rest of the Numbers Behind the Google/China Debacle
While we have every intention of continuing to focus on the market's unsung opportunities - micro cap stocks - today we need to take something of a break from our normal fare and talk about the 800 pound gorilla in the room.... Google, and its decision to leave China. Specifically, we want to do what...
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March 10, 2010 : Happy Birthday Bull Market! Here's What It Means.
In short, bull markets - any gain of 20% or more that follows a tumble of 20% or more - that survive for one calendar year are very likely to last at least two years. So, we can reasonably expect stocks to continue rallying to some degree at least through March 9th, 2011. In fact, the expectation for...
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March 06, 2010 : 'Green' Investing for Non-Speculators
About three years ago, the Micro Cap Press began covering the growth opportunities in a handful of green-energy industries. Though speculative, the demand was indeed there for companies that could meet it (1) quickly, and (2) cost-effectively. Company size wasn't a factor - technological know-how was...
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March 02, 2010 : Q4's Earnings Report Card - Hints & Red Flags
With nearly all of the stocks in the S&P 500 having reported their numbers, 72% have topped analysts' estimates, while 21% fell short of forecasts. Both were close to records, pointing to a widening gap between strong and weak results. As for a raw number, the S&P 500 is going to earn about $16.77...
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February 25, 2010 : A Realistic Market Valuation Forecast.... Uh-Oh
With 88% of the S&P 500's Q4-2009 earnings now in (and now that Standard & Poor's has updated their marketwide outlooks through 2011), we've got more than enough data to reassess where the market's likely to be headed over the course of this year. Let's just say it's a mixed bag. Assuming the...
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February 11, 2010 : Emerging Small Cap Leaders, by Industry
In 2008, every stock of every size in every industry was pretty much pointed lower. In 2009, every stock of every size in every industry was pretty much pointed higher. The only 'right and wrong' was being in the market or not. As we roll into 2010 though, we're finally seeing clear leaders emerge
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February 01, 2010 : Apple's iPad Reality Check
Assumption: The iPad will finally allow old-school print journalism to start charging for the web-version of their news content. Reality: The original long answer that was intended to be inserted here has been replaced by a much more concise - and much more powerful - answer than the original. Here it...
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January 21, 2010 : Bullish on Regional Banking (and not just for near-term reasons)
Though the big banks and brokerage houses dominated the media on Tuesday and Wednesday, a handful of smaller banks squeezed in their numbers as well. Two of Wednesday's announcements included U.S. Bancorp (USB), and M&T Bank Corp. (MTB). In both cases, earnings were well up from the same quarter...
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January 14, 2010 : Right Idea - Wrong Stocks: Perspective on ALCOA's Earnings Miss
Earlier this week, what started out as an apparently-savvy strategy for some investors quickly turned into a debacle when ALCOA (AA) failed to meet earnings estimates for its prior quarter. The debacle wasn't just the aluminum company itself though - it was also the instruments most investors chose to...
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January 06, 2010 : Truth and Perspective: Unemployment is Bullish
We've said it before, but it bears repeating now - we love your input, questions, ideas, and suggestions. Though we're not going to be a mouthpiece simply to pump up the stocks you own, if you've got a legitimate and founded trading idea, or a topic you think we should cover, let us know about it. For...
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Updated: 8:15 pm PDT (03:15 GMT), November 2, 2010
