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In
This Edition... |
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Sector Outlook:
Strength in Surprising Places
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Review of Recent
Chart Analysis
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Updated Watchlist
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What's
Hot - and Surprising - in the World of Small Caps? |
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You
know what's been coming on strong lately from the small cap world? It's
not necessarily energy or basic materials (though those certainly haven't
been disappointments).
No, one of the
more obscure small cap opportunities floating around right now is the uptrend
from certain segments of the healthcare sector... but not the entire
sector.
Biotech's
recent success is a given. Good news from Dendreon about immune therapy,
and several possible swine flu treatments, have ignited all those
stocks. It's an artificial strength though, and one we're not sure has
a future.
The hot spots
likely to have real longevity are healthcare equipment, healthcare technology,
and healthcare supplies. This specifically excludes healthcare facilities
(overbought), services (slightly overbought), and distributors (laggards).
There's nothing particularly wrong with the other three small cap groups
- they just aren't as attractive or strong right now.
The nearby chart
compares the recent percentage returns from the small caps (S&P 600
constituents) of all the afore-mentioned groups against the broad S&P
600 Small Cap Healthcare Index, as well as against the S&P 600
Index itself. The 'start date' is the March 9th bottom.
But wait a second...
aren't
the alleged hot spots actually laggards since then?
In
terms of results since early March, yes, we specifically suggested
the trailing groups. But if you look closely, you can see the
former leaders are starting to weaken, while the former laggards are starting
to curl upward. See, you don't want to own prior winners - you
want to be in the next winners.
Just to make
the chart analysis a little more up-to-date (and to make the point), we'll
scoot the start date forward to the market's May 8th peak, and redraw the
chart. With this more recent time frame we can see the small cap healthcare
suppliers, equipment, and technology stocks have emerged as new leaders.
The key here, however, is that this appears to be the beginning
of a trend rather than the end of it.
Though no tool
is foolproof, this visual relative-strength analysis has been outstanding
with helping us stay focused on the best of the best emerging trends.
There will certainly be more ups and downs (like today's down, for instance),
but the bigger trends are still clear.
By the way,
you could make the argument that the small cap healthcare technology industry
is just as overbought as small cap healthcare facilities are, and you'd
be right. There's a difference though - the technology stocks are still
making gains despite the headwind, while the facilities stocks are
clearly retreating now.
The complete
watchlist is below, as always, but a couple of tickers on the list as well
as some of our prior focus stocks deserve some special attention.
ParkerVision
Inc. (PRKR)
For some reason
or another, this stock keeps making its way back onto our radar. It got
our attention about a month ago, but proceeded to work its way into a consolidation
mode. As of Thursday however, the upper boundary of that sideways zone
(around $3.60) is being pressured again. If that line breaks - and that's
a big if - we can't help but wonder if the April rally will be resumed.
That said, PRKR
is going to have to find some more volume/buyers if it's to have a prayer
at breaking out.
Mirani
Brands Inc. (MRIB)
We've been tracking
the potential breakdown of MRIB shares for about three weeks. Support at
25 cents was holding up relatively well (which was the key), but that floor's
finally started to give way - we saw shares hit a low of 17 cents this
week.
That may only
be an 8 cent dip, but it's also a 32% dip.... not bad for a penny stock
scalp trade. We think there could be more downside to go though. Just play
it tight if you're in a position.
Other Recent
Discussions
We're dropping
Riverview Bancorp Inc. (RVSB) as a bearish candidate. The support at $2.90
never broke; we're even starting to see some buyers test the waters.
Herzfeld Caribbean
Basin Fund Inc. (CUBA) - the breakout ETF we detailed last week
- stalled out a couple days after our look. It's not a cause for alarm.
Though Spreadtrum
Technologies Inc. (SPRD) shares didn't move much following last week's
earnings announcement, something finally took hold on Tuesday.... SPRD
soared from $2.40 to $3.05 in a day (it was at $1.95 when we first looked
at it). The delayed reaction was still a good profit-taking opportunity
though. We suggest you do so now if you haven't yet.
We added Flow
International Corp. (FLOW) back to our focus watchlist last week, though
it hasn't done much since then. It's still on the table, but FLOW's got
to knock out the ceiling at $2.80 for us to get excited.
And what about
the newest charts worth our closer inspection?
Neogenomics
Inc, (NGNM)
When we first
added Neogenomics to the watchlist as a bearish possibility, support at
$1.30 was still intact..... barely. Since then we've seen several
trades under $1.30; Thursday's close of $1.26 clinched the opinion.
Our only concern
is the gap between Wednesday's low and Thursday's high. Will the market
try and close it? Perhaps, though the bigger-picture damage has already
been done.
As for possible
landing spots if this pullback gets traction, there seems to be a floor
at 92 cents. If that line fails, the next base looks to be somewhere in
the 62 cent vicinity.
Petaquilla
Minerals (PTQMF)
We've never
been big fans of gold mining stocks... too much volatility due to too much
hype. We are fans of good-looking charts though, and PTQMF certainly has
one of those.
In the very
short run, Petaquilla looks overbought because it is overbought. From a
longer-term point of view though, the current price of 63 cents is still
miles away from the late 2007 high around $3.25. And, with shares continuing
to make higher highs on rising volume - albeit it in a stair-step fashion
- it's tough not to like the possibility.
If you're interested,
you may want to wait for a pullback, or you may want to wait for the 20
day moving average line to 'catch up' so it can play a support role. We're
getting close to seeing that happen today.
International
Coal Group Inc. (ICO)
Yesterday, ICO
gave us one of its highest volume day in years. Why? Because James
River Coal was upgraded due to a likelihood it would be acquired, and
International Coal is simply a close cousin. Such is the power of industry
influence.
That alone wouldn't
be enough for a highlight though. We're also impressed with the way the
high volume rally pushed the stock above a prior resistance line.
In the grand
scheme of things though, even that's not the compelling part.
While all stocks
basically deserved to suffer during the 2008 recession, coal stocks gave
up more than their fair share of value. Now that the economy is starting
to look better again - not to mention coal prices rising again -
these severely undervalued stocks are also apt to recover the most ground
in a fairly short period of time. ICO is no exception.
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This
Week's Watchlist |
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Notice we're
dropping a bunch of tickers from the watchlist today. Though we do advocate
looking at a lot of ideas, dwelling on too many ideas can just be distracting.
We'll keep the ones worth watching, and drop the ones that don't look like
they're going to move. Doing so makes room for new additions (and we had
a handful of new ones to add this week).
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Richardson Electronics
Ltd. (RELL) - being taken off the watchlist today
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U.S. Gold Corp.
(UXG) - looks like the wedge breakout is getting traction after all
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Gabelli Healthcare
& Wellness (GRX) - higher lows, resistance is now at $5.15
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G-Willi Food Intl.
(WILC) - still climbing, though at a snail's pace
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Flow International
Corp. (FLOW) - eased a bit, bit working on a higher high again
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Intricon Corp.
(IIN) - we're taking this non-mover off the watchlist today as well
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Aristotle Corp.
(ARTL) - another modest pullback to the rising support line
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Collectors Universe
Inc. (CLCT) - volatility wrecked the chart, so we're dropping CLCT today
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Herzfeld Caribbean
Basin Fund Inc. (CUBA) - stalled after the breakout
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Oxygen Biotherapeutics
Inc. (OXBO) - not enough action here, so we're dropping it today
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JAG Media Holdings
Inc. (JAGH) - still a significant pullback threat
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Far East Energy
Corp. (FEEC) - the bears took a shot, but the uptrend is still alive
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China Tel Group
Inc. (CHTL) - last week's volume did nothing for the chart, so let's
drop CHTL
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Solar Power Inc.
(SOPW) - after we mentioned it last week, it flew from $0.78 to $1.16
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Neogemomics Inc,
(NGNM) - support at $1.30 is still being tested... and failing
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Pacer International
Inc. (PACR) - flat-lined, let's axe it from the watchlist
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Oncothyreon Inc.
(ONTY) - still testing support at $2.54
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Affymetrix Inc,
(AFFX) - Yep, looks like the drought is over. May be a little overbought
right now
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New Emergy Technologies
Inc. (NENE) - peaked above its consolidation range today
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PolyMedix Inc.
(PYMX) - support at $0.63 is hanging on by a thread
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Petaquilla Minerals
(PTQMF) - regardless of the fundamentals, the chart's U-shaped reversal
looks good
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China Pharma Holdings
(CPHI) - starting to recover from May's big dip
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VCG Holding Corp.
(VCGH) - The consolidation/wedge may finally be yeilding to the bulls
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Fieldpoint Petroleum
Corp. (FPP) - There's strong resstance betweem $2.50 and $2.60
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International Coal
Group Inc. (ICO) - nice breakout move on Thursday, with volume, on someone
else's
news
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