What's likely to be the next big paradigm shift in the world of technology? A few years ago, most crystal balls would have never conjured up images of digital television, biotech 'smart' dust, and a strictly-virtual gathering place like MySpace.com. However, each of those ideas is a reality today.
Now several years into the age of the infinite information and limitless communication, we've got something of a basis to help figure out where things might be headed next. Thus, we've got a handful of trends we feel are on the horizon.
Of course, these are strictly for fun, as nobody really knows what the future holds (we were also supposed to have flying cars by now, or be living in a post-atomic-war wasteland). But who knows? They all make sense to us, and hopefully our explanation makes sense to you as well.
Prediction #1. Web 2.0 will become the norm rather than a novelty.
On the web, revenues are ultimately driven by traffic. To drive traffic, you have to provide a reason for a consumer to use your site over someone else's site. If your web-based offer makes a user's life easier, better, faster, more profitable, or more entertaining (just to name a few), you're probably going to get solid traffic. Then, you can sell subscriptions, ads, services, etc.
In many ways, the Internet can already do those things for just about anybody. However, there's a difference with Web 2.0...one we can already see unfolding. Web 2.0 provides a seamless integration of the Web's services and data into the lifestyle of the user. Stock quotes can be transmitted to a hiker's Blackberry while he's halfway into a trail. Web searches are inherently narrowed by a browser's usage history, while the ads are equally targeted. Many careers are entirely web-based, with employers and employees separated by thousands of miles.
The Internet's tools are getting easier to use, cheaper (if they aren't free already), and more powerful. As the power of the Internet continues to be tapped, and as more and more users get comfortable with the idea, we foresee a growing migration into that mode of thinking.
As an analogy, think about the microwave oven. In its early days, the microwave oven's use was limited to heating up coffee...microwave popcorn was a breakthrough. Now, the microwave is as functional as a conventional oven. We expect the web to keep working its way into the daily lifestyles of its users.
Prediction #2. Internet-based cable television will start to become the preferred service choice.
Also known as IPTV (Internet Protocol Television), the digital quality of the signal and abundant quantity of channels from this not-exactly-new option is uncanny. Plus, IPTV is now competitively priced, yet it still appears on the TV set in the living room (as opposed to on your computer).
Of course, the government mandate requiring high-definition programming by early 2009 shuffled many IPTV players to the top of the deck last year...or maybe it just scooted some of the old-school cable companies further down in the deck. But, the IPTV outfits were coming into their own anyway. Yes, many traditional cable companies have been shifting in the HD direction anyway, but the true and pure IPTV players seems to have something of a head start when it comes to the delivery technology.
Prediction #3. Integration of all the gizmos.
Many cell phones now come with a camera, and may be web-enabled too. The Blackberry is a mini-computer, organizer, and a cell phone to boot. The iPod can now store a combination of songs, pictures, and video. Palm's LifeDrive is a mobile 4GB hard drive (which means it can play MP3s as well as run software), and it even features wireless connection capabilities within close range of the device.
However, to have convenient use of all these options, you'd still need at least two separate devices. And even then, the performance of any of them could be considered a little unimpressive.
In 2007, we're looking for hints of that one all-encompassing tool. That's right - one hand-held device that acts as a phone, a camera, a portable hard-drive, an iPod, and can access the Internet virtually anywhere that it can also find a cell phone signal. Ultimately, we think what consumers will ultimately desire is one device from which they can do all those things mentioned above.
Like most early attempts, we've got a feeling the prototypes may still leave a little to be desired. We're not even saying the final version will actually emerge within the next twelve months...there will probably be several early versions that piece together all these gadgets in differing formats. However, we still think the genre will start to pop up soon. If a company can manufacture one high quality device like this though, we think the gadget-crazed consumer's thirst may finally be quenched.
Prediction #4. Practicality will topple novelty.
In some ways this is in line with the prior predictions, and in some ways it's not. In simplest terms, as the uniqueness of an application wears off, its ongoing popularity will only be determined by its practical use. If it's pointless or problematic, we're not looking for it to be profitable.
Case in point - Blogs. There are millions of blogs out there; most are abandoned. Why? While it's fun to be published, it also lacks any satisfaction or purpose except for those who are blogging on a particular topic for an established audience. Given the choice, most web users are apt to gain more satisfaction by participating in a social network than they are by writing for a blog that others can't or won't participate in.
Case in point #2 - Games for your cell phone. The idea of being able to play video games anywhere you want sounds great. But at some point it time, most cell phone owners are going to wake up and realize they're working on a Sudoku puzzle on a one-inch screen in the middle of a coffee shop. They could have stayed home and done the same thing on a much bigger screen.....and not had to pay $4 for a cafe latte.
Those are just a couple of minor examples that probably didn't cost any individual or any company a ton of money. But, are there higher-priced technologies getting ready to lose their luster, as consumers discover they're not really satisfying or helpful? While the cell phone is probably never going to go away, how many movies have you actually filmed on your cell phone's MPEG camera?
In any case, those are just a few things to consider as we see technology trends start and stop throughout the course of 2007. Some of these ideas may also mean trading opportunities, while others may just be simple observations. Regardless of how these predictions pan out, we hope you can use them to enhance your own insights, and make 2007 your most profitable year ever.