|
It's
hard to believe it was only eight days ago the equity market began
to completely melt down, and only five days ago its regulation started
to be completely redefined. Along the way we saw Lehman fall, we watched
Merrill merge, and AIG made it to the edge of a cliff before getting reeled
in. Morgan and Goldman were overhauled over this weekend as well. Yep,
it's been an amazing eight days.
Here's the problem
- there was more going on last week than just the beginning of a new
era for financial markets. We can't help but wonder if all the noise
was a distraction from something else... like China
Energy Recovery (OTCBB: CGYV).
We were planning
on continual coverage anyway, so a follow-up today was on tap. Given the
situation though, a brief re-introduction may help tell this enticing
story.
The best way
to dissect this investment opportunity is simply to revisit
our original coverage and make your own conclusions with all the relevant
information. That includes taking about ten
minutes to review the video, which supplies some information we
didn't look at in the initial write-up.
If
you're just interested in the thumbnail sketch (which is fine) here goes...
China Energy
Recovery - or CER - makes a power plant or factory more efficient
by getting better use out of what would otherwise be wasted heat energy.
Electricity
is frequently generated by heating steam that turns a turbine. Unfortunately,
only about 1/3 of the heat created is actually used. The other 2/3 is wasted.
China Energy Recovery designs and builds equipment that uses wasted heat
to make more steam to spin another turbine. The technology is so efficient,
the
process uses a full 90% of the heat created rather than just 30%.
The end result
is simply that a facility can get the same level of electrical power using
only about 1/3 the amount of fuel (usually coal) currently being consumed.
That lowers energy expenses in addition to reducing the amount of
pollution created.
Best of all,
the equipment can pay for itself - via energy savings - usually
in 9 to 18 months.
The reason
it's such a big deal in China? The state's government has mandated
more power plant efficiency and cleaner power generation. The mandates
aren't hollow threats either - the government has already shut down factories
and plants that were found to be out of compliance with the new standards.
Almost needless
to say, the demand for this kind of technology swells each time energy
commodities like oil and coal move to outrageous prices (like yesterday).
With the price of these commodities not likely to ever get back
to levels from yesteryear, China Energy Recovery is well-positioned for
long-term growth.
Normally the
high-profile staff and management of a company doesn't get a great deal
of our interest; every company has impressive people steering the
ship. In China Energy Recovery's case though, it really is worth
highlighting.
The most recent
additions to the team are two new board members - Mr. Fred Krupica,
and Ms. Mengjiao Jiang. Krupica is currently the CFO of LegalZoom.com,
but has served as CFO for a wide variety of successful companies. Jiang
is the Managing Director of ARC Investment Partners. Prior to ARC, Ms.
Jiang was an Associate Director at Business Development Asia - a cross
border M&A firm.
He's
got a ton of fund-raising experience; she's got a ton of merger and acquisitions
experience. So, both should have an impact even as board members, which
are typically an arms length away from actually running the company.
We believe the real value they bring to the table is their extensive
network of contacts.
Last week, however,
may have been the biggest personnel victory in a while. China Energy
Recovery named Roger Ballentine to the board of directors. You may
not know the name, but when you find out what Ballentine formerly did,
you'll understand why it's such a big deal.
Roger Ballentine
was President Clinton's Chairman of the White House Climate Change Task
Force, and the Deputy Assistant to the President for Environmental
Initiatives. Now he's the President of Green Strategies Inc. - a consulting
company that offers investment guidance in the "clean tech" marketplace,
helping with marketing and business development strategies.
Do you think
Ballentine might have some clout in the arena? There aren't very many
bigger names this particular company could add to the board.
We're not being
unrealistic here - a big name on your board doesn't automatically put dollars
in your pocket. It sure doesn't hurt your chances for future growth
though. Speaking of future dollars...
We kicked off
our coverage of CER a couple of weeks ago largely based on a press release
regarding their sales backlog for the remainder of 2008. In a nutshell,
the company had $16 million worth of business to complete in calendar 2008.
Given that they'd done $9.9 million for the first half of the year, it
was an impressive increase. However, it was only half the story.
In 2006, China
Energy Recovery pulled in $5.5 million in business. In 2007, they did $11.8
million. For 2008, they were on track to do about $26 million. That's an
encouraging trend.
What
we didn't tell you, however, was something you would have uncovered
by watching
the video. The total current backlog is $40 million ... $16
million for the last half of this year, and another $24 million for 2009
or later. Or, to put it another way, they've already got almost as much
revenue on tap for 2009 as they'll be able to do in all of 2008 ... and
we're still more than three months away from the beginning of 2009.
While it's difficult
to say just how much revenue we should expect in the coming year, we'll
also point out two key facts. The first is, they've doubled their
revenue in each of the last two years. The second fact is,
the whole purpose of the financing they completed in April was to expand
their capacity.
It doesn't take
a great deal of conjecture to combine those two factors and conclude 2009
is going to be yet another outstanding year.
The one key
difference this time around is profits. CER turned a profit in the
first half of 2008, and we anticipate that those earnings will widen as
the top line begins to increase throughout this year and next year. This
is the core of the answer to the 'Why now?' question. Chine Energy
may prove to be a very rewarding investment as things fall into place for
the company.
In any case,
we urge you to
revisit the original profile now that the market is settling in again.
And, we suggest you view
the film - we believe it will be a smart investment of your time. You
may well find yourself quite impressed now that the market's smoke
is starting to clear. |