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A description of the content follows : Just how close is the S&P 500 to a pullback, and what will spark it? Here are a couple of key triggers to watch out for.

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November 1, 2010

Market Outlook - Closer to the Meltdown, Here’s What it Will Take

Filed under: — MicroCapPress Editor @ 12:27 am

Well, technically, it was a winning week - the S&P 500 gained 0.18 points (0.001%) over the past five trading days. While a gain is a gain is a gain, it’s clear there’s something amiss here. Perhaps it’s just a holding pattern for the election. Or, perhaps the tank really is out of gas.

Visually, the clues are mounting up. We already have a bearish MACD cross, and we’ve seen several high-volume selloffs (relative to the buying daily buying volume) over the last two weeks. And even with just a look at the S&P’s daily bars, we’ve obviously eased up on pushing the upper Bollinger band higher. Moreover, the 20-day moving average line (blue) at 1171 is getting more and more within striking distance as a support line.

That being said, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is the next big clue as to the market’s true direction. It has inched above the 20-day moving average line, though it’s strangely been finding a ceiling at a former floor…. at 21.50; former support lines that become ceilings tend to be very, very tough ceilings to crack. Ergo, when and if 21.50 is broken as resistance, that should pretty much jump-start the market’s short-term demise.

Such a move would likely coincide with a move under the SPX’s 20-day moving average line, so we have a lot of things to look for in the way of pullback warnings.

Until it happens, assume nothing. The midterm voting results may buy another week for the bulls; it may even spur another round of this already-overdone rally.

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